Trading highly rated prospects and future potential superstars is as unpredictable as trying to predict what the weather will be for the next 6 weeks. It's as unpredictable as trading commodity Futures on the exchange. There's no guarantee but there is plenty of risk. I've always said prospects are always prospects until they're not. From the time a young player is drafted out of college or even high school and during all his time in the Minor Leagues there is always a risk. Injuries, under performance, lack of development, and just plain wear and tear can make the best prospect at 19 or 20 look like the worst investment at 23 or 24. But as Hyman Roth said in The Godfather "this is the business we've chosen". But if you are a baseball fan much of this is understood, the question is what do you do, when do you do it, and how much do you give to get. The trading deadline makes every general manager deal with that question. There is no right and wrong no guarantees or promises that can be depended upon to help a GM make these decisions when the great unknown lays ahead. If you make the right decision it's easy to justify what you've done and everybody loves you. If not your resume takes a big hit. I've always felt that taking a long-term view is a relevant issue to consider as well. But more importantly, I believe that it's not just what you can do at the moment to make your team better. It's what happens to your franchise if the deal doesn't work out. How does that affect your depth of talent, the holes you have in your current lineup, your future ability to keep your team competitive, team chemistry, your Minor league pipeline etc.
You can sell your farm for a pot of gold but then you have nothing to eat and no place to live. GM's get paid for making decisions that hopefully make sense and give them the edge and leverage that they need to have their teams be successful. It's the same in other aspects of life. No matter what you do there is always a risk reward, a price to pay and a final result. Hopefully in all of our lives we can all hit home runs when we have to make those kinds of decisions.
If you're a baseball fan, this is the time of year when rumors run rampant speculation is at a fever pitch, and a team's future fortunes may live or die based on a good or bad trade. It's called the "trading deadline." With basically two-thirds of the season already completed it's time for franchises to decide whether they're Contenders or Pretenders, whether there are buyers or sellers. Talk shows and newspapers are full of game plans, formulas, and wish list's that if successful may get their teams to the promised land. For all of us baseball diehards it's serious business, but at the same time has to be taken with a grain of salt. Should they or shouldn't they, Yes, No, Maybe.
